The Week in Rare Earths (July 14)

New Critical Minerals List and a Financing Frenzy

This week we are in London for investor meetings. Tourism in the UK is booming and hotel rates were ridiculous, so Airbnb was a better option. We generally hate Airbnb because the properties listed on the app are overrated, as those doing ratings (buying the services) are afraid of bad ratings as customers. Does this sound anything like the flood of properties coming onto the market in the REE space? Maybe a little where it comes to the overrated bit.

This week the US DOD’s investment in MP Materials caught predictable flak, mainly because many of their assets are seen “uneconomical” to quote another observer of the REE space. This was a bit ironic given that such observers will also be quick to point out how China has taken steps to keep prices down below their real cost to prevent price from encouraging investment in new supply and keep other countries hooked on their material. Put another way, this has never been about economics and the MP deal(s) shouldn’t be cast in this light. The key question remains whether some of the projects announced in the last 6 months will provide material incremental supply of anything, of course on the right time horizon. We are optimistic, so we think the answer is ‘yes”.

The DOD was also in the news this week because the deadline for submissions related to its 2026 2026 Critical Materials Assessment is coming up (July 25). This, like many areas of the natural resources space has been a bonanza for K Street lobbyists and their clients seeking to have their segment of the REE equation added to official plans. The MP deal (and others) certainly encourages rent seeking, but this seems like a necessary (and messy) part of the process to secure the strategic outcome of incremental supply. Apple also got into the game with off-take commitments to MP, likely to support their financing, and assuming Apple gets the materials it is being sold at a price that is twice what they could get from China, on a unit cost basis for their marginal supply of gadgets it is still irrelevant.

Note that Ukraine also issued its own list for critical materials last week. This included a lot of text about decarbonization and green energy, but the significance of this list is that it is progress towards formalizing policies that will allow Ukraine to (try to) attract more outside investment. This is about money, not carbon emissions. Will global miners descend on Kiev ready to spread some money around? After all, there is the US-Ukraine “deal” on REEs….Probably not. But, Ukraine will leverage its natural resources as much as it can for as long as it can as a source of potential protection against further territorial losses.

But note another story out this week that Brazil exported a record amount of REE material to China for processing. China will remain an indispensable and dominant player in the REE supply chain even if they are partially displaced in the next decade. Over time, REE cooperation between the US, EU and others will likely make a comeback after there is quantifiable progress on alternative strategic initiatives. For those acquainted with the complexity of the uranium market, that would be a good guide for what to expect for the future of REEs.

In addition to our usual sections on new mining discoveries and exploration efforts, country programs and company announcements (there are a lot), we also include write ups on the DOD’s 2026 Critical Materials Assessment and Ukraine’s critical minerals list.

In market terms, the market for rare earths experienced notable volatility last week, driven primarily by fluctuations in the prices of light rare earths, especially praseodymium-neodymium (Pr-Nd). Initial optimism emerged following robust auction results by China Northern Rare Earth, pushing Pr-Nd oxide prices to approximately 475,000-480,000 yuan/mt and Pr-Nd alloy to 580,000-585,000 yuan/mt. However, this optimism was tempered by limited spot transactions and cautious buyer sentiment, leading to price stabilization by week's end. In contrast, medium and heavy rare earth markets, including dysprosium, terbium, gadolinium, and holmium, showed greater stability with minimal price movements and subdued trading. The scrap and recycling sector mirrored the volatility seen in oxide markets, experiencing sharp early-week price increases, a mid-week correction, and subsequent recovery, with scrap suppliers hesitant to sell at lower levels. NdFeB magnet blanks also saw moderate price fluctuations, reflecting cautious market conditions and uncertainty over raw material costs.